GERMAN EXILE AND DEATH




Although no exact tally of expelled Germans exists, the following figures represent a rough estimation of their numbers using various census and rationing records, with help from the Zentrum Gegen Vertreibungen:


Population

Germany east of 1945 border (1944 ration office records)

9,758,000 (est)

Poland (1944 ration office records)

2,140,000 (est)

Czechoslovakia (1930 census)

3,070,899

Hungary (cited by Austrian government 1940)

845,281

Romania (1930 census)

745,421

Total

16,500,000 (est)


Konrad Adenauer, first Chancellor of West Germany, estimated that of the some 13 million ethnic Germans left outside of Occupied Germany by the 1945 borders, only 7.3 million ever returned:

"According to American estimates, some 13.8 million Germans were expelled from Eastern Germany, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, etc.  7.8 million arrived in the eastern and western zones.  6 millions Germans disappeared from the face of the Earth.  They are dead and gone . . .  A large number of able-bodied men and women were taken to Russia.  The expulsion of these 13-14 million people from their homes, home which their forefathers had inhabited for centuries, has inflicted unending suffering . . . the expulsions began with the Potsdam Agreement of August 2, 1945.  I am convinced that history will judge this document harshly" (Konrad Adenauer, "Erinnerungen 1945 – 1953," DVA, Stuttgart, 1965, S. 186).




Novelist and historical writer James Bacque,  compiled one compelling study on subject.  Crimes and Mercies, although by no means definitive, points to the work yet to be done.  Using raw census data, Bacque has sought to estimate the actual human costs on Germany in the period of 1946-1950. 


The following, according to Bacque encompasses the total number of unreported deaths among German civilians in the postwar years.

Minimum (est.)

Maximum (est.)

Expelled Germans (1945-50)

2,100,000

6,000,000

Prisoners of War (1941-50)

1,500,000

2,000,000

Residents (1946-50)

5,700,000

5,700,000

Total

9,300,000

13,700,000

Note: the estimates above do not reflect any forensic evidence, nor are they substantiated by sources other than Bacque himself.  The figures reflect only census data shortfalls.


His total, 5.7 million, counts only deaths that went unreported in official population figures, and as a result has no forensic evidence whatsoever.  Census data and arithmetic alone produce that massive number.  According to Bacque, after official civilian death, birth, immigration and emigration rates are added up, some 5.7 million Germans are missing.

The following table, using Bacque's census data model, estimates what population growth should have been.


Difference (1946-50)

Births

+4,176,430

Deaths

–3,235,539

Returning Prisoners of War

+2,600,000 (est)

Expelled Germans

+6,000,000 (est)

Emigration

–600,000 (est)

Total

+9,000,000 (est)

Note: the estimates above do not reflect any forensic evidence, nor are they substantiated by sources other than Bacque himself.

If, as Bacque calculates, the German population grew by 9 million between 1946 and 1950, then the total population for 1950 would stand at about 74 million, in accordance with the 1946 census.  In reality, 1950 census counts only 69,346,000, a shortfall of 5.7 million.




Further Reading

Mortality Statistics for the German Population
Another third-party effort at tallying the total deaths among Germans during and after World War II

Recommended Books
A list of mass-market accounts on the subject of Europe after the end of World War II