The disappearance (and probable murder) of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi has made headlines around the world. He was known for promoting democracy in Saudi Arabia. He is a Saudi Arabian U.S. resident who often criticized the government of Saudi Arabia for its failure to promote democracy and human rights. Before his disappearance, he was working to form an NGO that would advocate for policymakers and journalists, and monitor Middle Eastern governments for adherence to democratic values. He often maintained that he was not trying to overthrow the government of Mohammad Bin Salman (colloquially known as 'MBS'), but only wanted to promote the freedom of expression.
Mr. Khashoggi was last seen walking into the Saudi Consulate Istanbul, Turkey about 1:30 p.m. on Oct. 2, 2018, when Turkish security cameras recorded his entrance. His fiancée, who was waiting outside, said he never emerged.
The Saudis say he left. Without his fiancée? We find that dubious.
Turkish officials have told the New York Times that they believe he was assassinated under the orders of the Saudi royal court. They claim that a team of 15 Saudi agents flew to Turkey on 2 charter flights, then that this team went to the consulate, killed Khashoggi and dismembered him with a bone saw. Turkish authorities claim they have explicit audio recordings as well as video footage. (New York Times)
Such material, if made public, could transform the unfolding standoff between Turkey and Saudi Arabia over the disappearance of Mr. Khashoggi. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey has pointedly demanded an explanation from the Saudis.
For now, the exact truth of Khashoggi's disappearance remains unclear. But the likely outcome is not very hopeful.
U.S. SENATORS CALL FOR INVESTIGATION AND SANCTIONS
In a recent letter from Senators Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) and Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), chairman and ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.), chairman and ranking member of the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs, there is a demand for an investigation into the disappearance of Khashoggi, and the possible issuing of sanctions for the extrajudicial killing, torture, or other gross violation of internationally recognized human rights against an individual exercising freedom of expression. In this letter, they ask the President to report to the Senate Committee in 120 days with a decision about the sanctions.
MOHAMMAD BIN SALMAN - REFORMER OR MASS MURDERER?
We wonder how this unfolding investigation will affect relations between the Saudis and the U.S., especially considering the close ties built between MBS and the Trump Administration.
The young MBS, 32-years-old, likes to portray himself as a daring reformer. And indeed he has overseen some big changes in the conservative Saudi Kingdom. This includes women finally obtaining the right to drive, opening cinemas again, and allowing music to be performed in public. Yet these changes have come with increasing authoritarianism at home, and recklessness abroad.
And despite MBS's reforms at home, Saudi women remain second class citizens. Under Saudi’s male guardianship system, women still cannot travel, obtain a passport, or get married without a male relative’s approval. Moreover, Saudi activists who have pushed for women’s rights, including driving, continue to be harassed and silenced. Saudi Arabia still has one of the highest execution rates in the world.
Beneath the carefully crafted image of the bold reformer, the crown prince hides a dark reality.
THE CRISIS IN YEMEN
MBS has presided over a three year long war with Yemen, rife with war crimes and human rights abuses. As his country's defense minister since 2015, MBS plays a central role in this war that has left more than 6,100 civilians dead and 9,683 wounded. Most of the deaths have been from air strikes by the Saudi-led coalition that caused death and destruction in markets, hospitals, mosques, and schools. Attacks have struck buildings hosting weddings and funerals.
The Saudi coalition strangles Yemen with a blockade that is intensifying what the UN calls the world's worst humanitarian crisis. Yemeni civilians are starving, sick, dying and in desperate need of aid.
INCREASED AUTHORITARIANISM AT HOME
State repression against human rights defenders has not decreased, but actually increased under MBS.
In September of 2017, he had many dissident religious leaders arrested, and in November he turned the Ritz Carlton in Riyadh into a gilded prison, in which dozens of prominent individuals, including princes like him, were detained without any due process. 17 Were treated at hospitals for torture and other mistreatment used to coerce billions of dollars in payments. The operation was opportunely presented as aimed at fighting corruption, but the absence of legal proceedings gave it the appearance of an extortion campaign. (Human Rights Watch)
OTHER ACTS OF DIPLOMATIC INSANITY
Other acts of insanity from MBS include the recent spat with Canada, where the Saudis recalled all of its diplomatic staff, after Canada made some criticisms about Saudi Arabia's human rights abuses.
Also even more insane is the Saudi conflict with the neighboring nation of Qatar. They banned Qatar airplanes and ships from entering their airspace and sea routes. This happened because Qatar, according to the Saudis, supposedly "supported terrorism."
Initial supply disruptions were mitigated by additional imports from Iran and Turkey, and Qatar did not agree to any of the Saudi-led coalition's demands. The demands included reducing diplomatic relations with Iran, stopping military coordination with Turkey, and closing Al-Jazeera.
THE DUBIOUS FUTURE OF PRINCE MOHAMMAD BIN SALMAN
Saudi politics can be brutal. There are lots of other royals in Riyadh and it's not hard to imagine some of them going up to King Salman and telling him that his son is out of control. Traditionally, the King has always ruled Saudi Arabia, but has done so with the help of the Royal Court, a consultative body made up of senior royals. Ruling the kingdom had previously been a collaborative effort. Bin Salman has ripped this up by imprisoning royals, taking away their money and power. Ministers talk of being summoned in the middle of the night and being read screeds of data on what he wants them to achieve. The impression he creates is that of a man trying to run the country by himself on a high-speed mission, issuing orders and not listening.
It's not hard to imagine that there will be those at home ready to bring him down, especially after this most recent international incident.
The Saudi future monarch is for the moment protected by his powerful allies on the Security Council, of which the United States is a permanent member. But after Saudi Arabia's willingness to assassinate a U.S. citizen and journalist, perhaps that relation will start to crumble.
LINKS
Letter
CORKER, MENENDEZ, GRAHAM, LEAHY LETTER TRIGGERS GLOBAL MAGNITSKY INVESTIGATION INTO DISAPPEARANCE OF JAMAL KHASHOGGI (Bob Corker Official Website, 10-10-18)
News
Settling The Khashoggi Case Is A Difficult Matter (Moon of Alabama, 10-14-18)
Khashoggi's fate could sink MBS in brutal Saudi politics (CNN, 10-12-18)
Turkey has 'shocking' audio and visual evidence of Saudi journalist's killing (CNN, 10-12-18)
Saudis discussed plan to lure Jamal Khashoggi to Saudi Arabia, US intercepts show (CNN, 10-11-18)
What happened to Jamal Khashoggi? (Facebook Video, 10-11-18)
‘Our Hands Can Reach You’: Khashoggi Case Shakes Saudi Dissidents Abroad (New York Times, 10-8-18)
Mohammed Bin Salman Deserves Sanctions, Not the Red Carpet (Human Rights Watch, 4-9-18)
2017–18 Qatar diplomatic crisis (Wikipedia)